The method allows for estimation of the benefits of FFWRSs that use either deterministic or probabilistic forecasts. The estimated benefits include not only the reduction of flood losses due to a warning response, but also consider the costs of the warning response itself, as well as the costs associated with forecasting uncertainty.
The method is based on a hydro-economic model of expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding, combined with the concept of Relative Economic Value (REV). In the present paper, a method to estimate the benefits of (imperfect) FFWRSs in reducing flood risk is presented. This forecasting uncertainty decreases the potential reduction of flood risk, but is seldom accounted for in estimates of the benefits of FFWRSs. These systems include a forecasting sub-system which is imperfect, meaning that inherent uncertainties in hydrological forecasts may result in false alarms and missed events.
Flood risk can be reduced by means of flood forecasting, warning and response systems (FFWRS).
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